The Real Skinny on the Michigan '06 Elections

To say this election was a bit of a doozy is an understatement. I'm glad that I was able to get the real breakdown of the numbers and what it all meant with lpackard this past Friday at the Kellogg Center at MSU for the Off the Record - On the Road 2006 Election Wrap-Up, hosted by our 'favorite' Tim Skubic.

I went to hear what the pollsters had to say, what wasn't in the papers, and what the real numbers were. I think you might be as surprised as I was.
Better yet, we got post-election thoughts from the Granholm, DeVos, Stabenow, and Bouchard campaign people. Pretty interesting. So interesting, I took notes. Not quite live-blogging, but I think you'll enjoy it.

This bit's from Ed Sarpolus with EPIC + MRA...

• The ad that helped Governor Granholm win more women was her Abortion Ad. Even with the Right-to-Life group, women sided with Granholm because in the end, they didn't want anyone telling them what to do with their body.
• DeVos lost most retirees after itwas revealed that he believed that if you want health care, you need to get a job.
• More Michigan voters liked President George W. Bush more than they liked Dick DeVos, and that ain't saying much.
  
• Between 8 and 10% of Republicans voted for Granholm based on their feelings over Iraq.
  
• More people believed that Michigan's poor economy was the fault of President Bush, not Governor Granholm's.
  
• Most people did not believe Michigan is experiencing a single-state recession, contrary to what DeVos said.
  
• More voters believed that out of the two candidates, Governor Granholm was the one who "was more honest and truly cares about you."
• The Single Biggest Complaint voters had about Dick DeVos was that he was unable to define himself for the voters.
  
• 51% of voters knew more of Granholm's plan (if re-elected) compared to 31% of DeVos.
• 59% of voters believed that Governor Granholm was more charismatic, compared to 23% for DeVos.
• 49% of voters believed that on issues of abortion, stem cell research, intelligent design, gay marriage, Granholm better reflected their personal views, as compared to 35% for DeVos.
• 45% of voters believed that DeVos' role as President of Amway hurt his chances of winning. - Biggest single factor that he was unable to shake.
  

and my personal favorite - after the 1st Debate, Dick DeVos lost votes based on (in Sarpolus' words) The Wimp Factor. No explanation, she beat him senseless in that first debate.

Then there's Steve Mitchell. Ah yes, that guy that called it right before the election 46%-44% for Granholm, which quite obviously was not the case. Not too mention that he's good friends/worked for the DeVos team (something that's addressed below).

• Both Mitchell and Saropolus agreed that this race was most comparable to the 1966 race due to the Vietnam War in terms of negative backlash.
  
• Total of 3.8 Million voters, up 600,000 from 2002.
  
• DeVos actually won 100,000 more votes than Dick Posthumus did in 2002.
  
• Granholm won 500,000 more votes than she did in 2002.
  
• Of those who voted in the 2004 Presidential Race, Granholm took 86% of those who voted for John Kerry, and DeVos took 70% of the voters for George W. Bush.
• Noted extremely high Democratic turn out for Granholm.
  
• Granholm won two-thirds of the Independent vote.
  

Mitchell also credits DeVos' loss with a failure to present his biography through ads, and was not effective in answering the 'China Accusations' from the Granholm camp.
He believes that Governor Granholm ran a superb campaign, but it was more of a national campaign, with lots of backlash over the war, GOP handling of the country, etc.

Upon being questioned by a member of the audience about his integrity in polling, given his association and paid polling services by the DeVos team, Steve Mitchell responded "I'm glad you asked that question." To para-phrase him, he is proud to be very good friends with Dick Posthumus, and did polling for him that showed him down. "As a pollster, all your integrity lays in your numbers." Hmmm...famous last words?

John Truscott is Dick DeVos' man still to this day. He thinks they ran a great campaign, that the media did an excellent job reporting things (I wanted to know about the media, NOT just the Detroit News) and when asked what it was like to have a campaign where money was not issue he responded "Beyond your wildest dreams!" to which everyone laughed at. Too bad it was so true.

Chris DeWitt spoke on behalf of the Granholm campaign and it was nice to see both him and Tom Russell (campaign manager for Stabenow for Senate) thank and credit their campaign staff and workers with a job well done, including our own lpackard. I was happy to see DeWitt also mention how important the Internet was in this campaign (props given to our favorite Granholm Campaign Internet Communications Director, Clint!) and how it's going to increasingly be a larger factor in the future of campaigning.

All-in-all, it was a fruitful evening, and even a bit of a spectator sport. I'm never ceased to be surprised how snarky Michigan politics can get. No one was out right rude, but each side knew how to get their dig in here and there, and it made for a little entertainment throughout the evening.

I was glad to see that the Democrats were the primary ones to touch on the importance of netroots activism in this campaign. I hope that they continue to see how crucial it is to invest time, money and people into this area. I have no doubt that like everything else in this state and country, the Internet is the future. Americans, particularly the 30-somethings and under, are the instant-gratification generations, they want their news and information instantly, pulled up by a couple mouse-clicks. Our party and our candidates must keep up, or get out. I just hope that our party leadership understands that now before its too late.

And now, onward to victory again in '08!

(Cross posted on MichganLiberal and Daily Kos)