The Sound You Hear is the Drowning of the GOP

While it's not the most surprising of news, it's certainly worth mentioning because it only confirms what most of us believe - the Republican Party is losing members, and fast. Gee, how could it ever happen!?

The Pew Research Center has the latest numbers. Janet Hook from the LA Times has the story. While you should definitely check out both the study findings and the article, here's a couple choice favorites from the newspaper -

The survey, by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center for People and the Press, found a "dramatic shift" in political party identification since 2002, when Republicans and Democrats were at rough parity. Now, half of those surveyed identified with or leaned toward Democrats, while only 35% aligned with Republicans.

What's more, the survey found the public attitudes are drifting toward Democrats' values: Support for government aid to the disadvantaged has grown since the mid-1990s, skepticism about the use of military force has increased and support for traditional family values has edged down.

Those findings suggest that Republicans' political challenges reach beyond the unpopularity of the war in Iraq and Bush.

"Iraq has played a large part; the pushback on the Republican Party has to do with Bush, but there are other things going on here that Republicans will have to contend with," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center. "There is a difference in the landscape."

-snip-

"This is the beginning of a Democratic opportunity," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. "The question is whether we blow it or not."

It turns out that Michigan isn't the only place where you can find a bunch of Naysayers...

Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster, said he believed the Pew poll exaggerates his party's problems and that the situation will improve as attention shifts to choosing Bush's successor.

"Once we have new nominees to redefine the Republican and Democratic party in 2008, then we will have a far more level playing field than we have today," Ayres said.

Oh that's right. That definitely explains why Bush is facing numbers (between 34 and 39%, depending on who you ask) not seen since Hoover's term. Remember hearing about the mass shanty-towns going up all over the country affectionately called Hoovervilles? Shrub and his cult of not-so-merry men are definitely working their way there.

Here's one more tidbit to satisfy your appetite till you link over to the article, and trust me, you'll want too!

Republicans seem to be paying a price for a growing sense of dissatisfaction with the state of the country during the Bush years. Three out of 10 people said they were satisfied with the way things are going in the country--a 25-point drop in the last seven years.

While Republicans rode to political power calling for smaller government, support for government action to help the disadvantaged has risen since the GOP took control of Congress in 1994. Back then, 57% believed the government had a responsibility to take care of people who cannot take care of themselves; now 69% believe that.

This is good news. Now, we need to mobilize ourselves, go back to school, and figure out how to continue to give everyday Americans a reason to say "Look what the Democrats have done for me."

What have you done for your community/state/country today?

The Real Skinny on the Michigan '06 Elections

To say this election was a bit of a doozy is an understatement. I'm glad that I was able to get the real breakdown of the numbers and what it all meant with lpackard this past Friday at the Kellogg Center at MSU for the Off the Record - On the Road 2006 Election Wrap-Up, hosted by our 'favorite' Tim Skubic.

I went to hear what the pollsters had to say, what wasn't in the papers, and what the real numbers were. I think you might be as surprised as I was.
Better yet, we got post-election thoughts from the Granholm, DeVos, Stabenow, and Bouchard campaign people. Pretty interesting. So interesting, I took notes. Not quite live-blogging, but I think you'll enjoy it.

This bit's from Ed Sarpolus with EPIC + MRA...

• The ad that helped Governor Granholm win more women was her Abortion Ad. Even with the Right-to-Life group, women sided with Granholm because in the end, they didn't want anyone telling them what to do with their body.
• DeVos lost most retirees after itwas revealed that he believed that if you want health care, you need to get a job.
• More Michigan voters liked President George W. Bush more than they liked Dick DeVos, and that ain't saying much.
  
• Between 8 and 10% of Republicans voted for Granholm based on their feelings over Iraq.
  
• More people believed that Michigan's poor economy was the fault of President Bush, not Governor Granholm's.
  
• Most people did not believe Michigan is experiencing a single-state recession, contrary to what DeVos said.
  
• More voters believed that out of the two candidates, Governor Granholm was the one who "was more honest and truly cares about you."
• The Single Biggest Complaint voters had about Dick DeVos was that he was unable to define himself for the voters.
  
• 51% of voters knew more of Granholm's plan (if re-elected) compared to 31% of DeVos.
• 59% of voters believed that Governor Granholm was more charismatic, compared to 23% for DeVos.
• 49% of voters believed that on issues of abortion, stem cell research, intelligent design, gay marriage, Granholm better reflected their personal views, as compared to 35% for DeVos.
• 45% of voters believed that DeVos' role as President of Amway hurt his chances of winning. - Biggest single factor that he was unable to shake.
  

and my personal favorite - after the 1st Debate, Dick DeVos lost votes based on (in Sarpolus' words) The Wimp Factor. No explanation, she beat him senseless in that first debate.

Then there's Steve Mitchell. Ah yes, that guy that called it right before the election 46%-44% for Granholm, which quite obviously was not the case. Not too mention that he's good friends/worked for the DeVos team (something that's addressed below).

• Both Mitchell and Saropolus agreed that this race was most comparable to the 1966 race due to the Vietnam War in terms of negative backlash.
  
• Total of 3.8 Million voters, up 600,000 from 2002.
  
• DeVos actually won 100,000 more votes than Dick Posthumus did in 2002.
  
• Granholm won 500,000 more votes than she did in 2002.
  
• Of those who voted in the 2004 Presidential Race, Granholm took 86% of those who voted for John Kerry, and DeVos took 70% of the voters for George W. Bush.
• Noted extremely high Democratic turn out for Granholm.
  
• Granholm won two-thirds of the Independent vote.
  

Mitchell also credits DeVos' loss with a failure to present his biography through ads, and was not effective in answering the 'China Accusations' from the Granholm camp.
He believes that Governor Granholm ran a superb campaign, but it was more of a national campaign, with lots of backlash over the war, GOP handling of the country, etc.

Upon being questioned by a member of the audience about his integrity in polling, given his association and paid polling services by the DeVos team, Steve Mitchell responded "I'm glad you asked that question." To para-phrase him, he is proud to be very good friends with Dick Posthumus, and did polling for him that showed him down. "As a pollster, all your integrity lays in your numbers." Hmmm...famous last words?

John Truscott is Dick DeVos' man still to this day. He thinks they ran a great campaign, that the media did an excellent job reporting things (I wanted to know about the media, NOT just the Detroit News) and when asked what it was like to have a campaign where money was not issue he responded "Beyond your wildest dreams!" to which everyone laughed at. Too bad it was so true.

Chris DeWitt spoke on behalf of the Granholm campaign and it was nice to see both him and Tom Russell (campaign manager for Stabenow for Senate) thank and credit their campaign staff and workers with a job well done, including our own lpackard. I was happy to see DeWitt also mention how important the Internet was in this campaign (props given to our favorite Granholm Campaign Internet Communications Director, Clint!) and how it's going to increasingly be a larger factor in the future of campaigning.

All-in-all, it was a fruitful evening, and even a bit of a spectator sport. I'm never ceased to be surprised how snarky Michigan politics can get. No one was out right rude, but each side knew how to get their dig in here and there, and it made for a little entertainment throughout the evening.

I was glad to see that the Democrats were the primary ones to touch on the importance of netroots activism in this campaign. I hope that they continue to see how crucial it is to invest time, money and people into this area. I have no doubt that like everything else in this state and country, the Internet is the future. Americans, particularly the 30-somethings and under, are the instant-gratification generations, they want their news and information instantly, pulled up by a couple mouse-clicks. Our party and our candidates must keep up, or get out. I just hope that our party leadership understands that now before its too late.

And now, onward to victory again in '08!

(Cross posted on MichganLiberal and Daily Kos)

Good news for Granholm. Tricky Dick continues to slip

Yay!

More good news from the Detroit Free Press, thanks to the ladies of Michigan. (Way to go, girls!)

A surge of support from women gave Gov. Jennifer Granholm a double-digit lead over Republican challenger Dick DeVos in a race for governor that's entered its final 48 hours.

Granholm's overall 54% to 41% lead is fueled by her 26 percentage-point margin among women, according to the Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll. DeVos has a 1 percentage-point margin among men.

-snip-

The Free Press-Local 4 poll shows Granholm held a 17-point edge among independent voters, who likely will decide the outcome of the race. About 5% in the poll said they were undecided or will choose a minor party candidate.

Granholm had a 21-point lead in metro Detroit, which comprises almost half of the state's voters.

Alright guys and girls, are you listening?

The key to keeping Michigan on track and keep your government working for you is simple.

Go out and vote for Granholm!

(and the multitude of other progressive candidates in your district.)
That's it, so simple, one little act, takes mere minutes and yet can determine how good or bad this state is going to get in the next 4 years.
Why? (other than the obvious?)

"This is all about turnout," she said. "The way this could go for DeVos is voters in metro Detroit stay home and there's an exceptionally high turnout in the west part of the state."

But that's not the only interesting bit....

Besides showing Granholm with a firm lead, the poll suggests trouble for Republicans on Election Day.

Independent voters said they are more inclined to vote for Democrats than they had been in the past. Independent voters are the key to winning the governor's race and others where neither party has a big advantage.

Also, the poll shows a significantly higher percentage of Democrats than Republicans plan to vote straight ticket this year -- 56% to 47% -- which would benefit Democrats in their attempt to wrest control of the Michigan House and Senate from the Republicans.

National polls have shown Democrats have a good shot at capturing the U.S. House or Senate, and that the public's anxiety over the war in Iraq is weighing heavily against Republicans.

I have to be honest though, my favorite bit of this article once again show's how Amway is bringing the sheep to the polls.

Nicole Baker, 33, of Otsego is voting for DeVos. She said she voted for Granholm in 2002, even though she disagreed with her pro-choice stance on abortion.

But Baker said she's disappointed with Granholm because of the state's poor jobs climate.

"It's gotten worse in the last year. There was no way I was voting for her," Baker said, adding that she likes DeVos' views opposing abortion.

Baker said her husband, a mechanical engineer, could easily make more money in other states, but they're reluctant to leave their families in Michigan. She said her brother is an Amway distributor and speaks highly of DeVos.

:sigh: And you wonder why I dislike Amway so much?

~LL

Good news (Polling Numbers) for Michigan Democrats

Alright, so I'm a bit superstitious, and I normally try not to look at poll numbers this close to E-Day, but there's so much good news that I just can't help myself.

First off, from my good buddy Nirmal at Capital Viewpoint.
Nirmal is a statistical whiz and he's broken down the latest EPIC-MRA Poll on the Granholm v. Tricky Dick DeVos race. Of course leave it to Lansing's very own WILX-TV to read it wrong.

The latest EPIC-MRA poll shows Granholm leading DeVos 52 percent to 43 percent. They sampled 600 likely voters over the past three days, with a margin of error of 4 percent.

The previous EPIC-MRA results, released Tuesday, showed Granholm leading DeVos 52% to 42%. Unfortunately, this has led WILX 10 to falsely claim that the "Race for Governor Gap Tightens." This is simply untrue. The margin of error is 4%, so a 1% difference in the results is not significant.

Of course, then there's Matt at MichLib who sat down with East Lansing's very own Poll Papa, Mark Grebner. Mark says the Gov's up by 5 (Matt's coming in at an optimistic 7). Jump on over to the story here and listen to Matt's interview with Mark. Good work, Matt!

And this just in from the LSJ's very own Election Blog. Derek Wallbank is the poor guy that got stuck with this beast of a blog and so far, he's done a pretty decent job of covering it. I don't always agree with him and I've commented to that effect on the blog a couple times, but for the most part, he deserves an 'A' for effort.
Today's post is aptly called "Dems chances to win MI Senate, House, upgraded"
Basically Derek got a hold of the recently released Rothenberg Political Report. Here's an excerpt.

Democratic chances to take the Michigan Senate and House were upgraded today as Lou Jacobson of the Rothenberg Political Report and Roll Call, moved them both to the "Lean Republican" category from "Likely Republican".

In Michigan, both chambers are now in play. While the improving fortunes of once-vulnerable Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) have helped her party, the bigger issue may be that a Kalamazoo-based millionaire, Jon Stryker, is spending several million dollars on independent expenditure TV ads that slam GOP incumbents in key districts.

Control of the Senate looks like it's coming down to four races, each currently held by a Republican:

Sen. Tom George vs. Rep. Alexander Lipsey (Kalamazoo area)
Sen. Laura Toy vs. Rep. Glenn Anderson (Westland/Livonia)
Rep. Roger Kahn (R) vs. Rep. Carl Williams (D) (Saginaw)
John Pappageorge vs. Andy Levin (Royal Oak)

Democrats need 3 of 4 to get a tie (broken by the Lt. Gov), 4 of 4 for a win.

Control of the House is a much tougher thing. Insiders say Democrats may lose former Rep. Herb Kehrl's seat, but should pick up Rep. David Farhat's. Beyond that, who knows?

As I've been saying, look south. If either party wins 3 out of the LSJ political blog's 3 target seats: the 67th (South Ingham County), 64th and 65th (Jackson County), they would almost assuredly win control. But polling in House races is very tough, and there's not much of it outside of internal polls. Anything could happen.

Anything could happen indeed!! Can't wait to see how the next couple days are going to play out. Keep your eyes and ears open!!!

~LL